The escalating Middle East conflict has thrown some of the world’s largest trade routes into turmoil, including the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. With insurance cover being pulled, tanker traffic stalling, and energy prices surging, the impact is already rippling through export, project, and commodity finance markets.

The “Weaponisation of Trade” has morphed into “The World at Economic War”, released last year and no less accurate in its predictions. Few have been as prescient on the weaponisation of trade as Dr Rebecca Harding - independent trade economist, CEO of The Centre for Economic Security, and author of The Weaponization of Trade. She has spent years mapping how states use trade as a strategic tool and how disruptions cascade through supply chains, commodity prices, and financing structures.

We sit down with Rebecca to unpack what the current conflict means for industry - and where the risks and opportunities lie in 2026 and beyond.